Open books
How we estimate
We’d rather be slightly boring and checkable than flashy and mysterious. Here’s the whole machine.
Last reviewed Nov 1, 2026
The formula
Labor = job_hours × local_hourly_wage × contractor_markup Materials = baseline_materials × regional_materials_factor Total = Labor + Materials Range mixes low/mid/high hours & materials with p10 / mean / p90 wages
Markup (2.0× / 2.25× / 2.5×) is our stand-in for billed labor — benefits, truck, overhead, profit. It is not a BLS number. Materials baselines are editorial assumptions listed below; we dampen regional differences so materials don’t swing as wildly as wages.
Job baselines
| Job | Trade | Hours L/M/H | Materials L/M/H | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central AC Replacement | hvac | 8/12/16 | $3,200/$4,500/$6,500 | job |
| Furnace Replacement | hvac | 6/9/14 | $1,800/$3,200/$5,200 | job |
| Heat Pump Installation | hvac | 10/16/24 | $4,500/$7,500/$12,000 | job |
| Water Heater Replacement | plumber | 3/4.5/7 | $550/$950/$1,800 | job |
| Toilet Installation | plumber | 1.5/2.5/4 | $120/$280/$550 | job |
| Pipe Repair | plumber | 2/3.5/6 | $40/$150/$450 | job |
| Drain Cleaning | plumber | 1/1.5/3 | $0/$25/$100 | job |
| Roof Replacement | roofer | 0.08/0.12/0.18 | $4/$6/$9 | sqft |
| Roof Repair | roofer | 2/4/8 | $75/$250/$800 | job |
| Gutter Installation | roofer | 4/7/12 | $400/$900/$1,800 | job |
Sources
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) — Mean, median, and percentile hourly wages by metro for SOC 49-9021 (HVAC), 47-2152 (Plumbers), 47-2181 (Roofers).
https://www.bls.gov/oes/
License: Public domain (U.S. federal government). Cite BLS. Do not use BLS emblem. https://www.bls.gov/opub/copyright-information.htm · May 2025 OEWS estimates, retrieved via BLS public API on 2026-11-01 - BLS Producer Price Index – Construction materials (WPUSI012011) — National PPI for construction materials used to contextualize materials cost trends over time.
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPUSI012011
License: Public domain. Cite BLS. · Latest observation used: 2026-09 index value 378.610 (1982=100) - IRS Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (IRC §25C) — Federal tax credit rules for qualifying HVAC, heat pumps, water heaters, and related improvements. Amounts and eligibility change; we link rather than hard-code dollar claims as guarantees.
https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/energy-efficient-home-improvement-credit
License: U.S. government work / public domain guidance pages. · Referenced 2026-11-01; readers must verify current tax year rules. - ENERGY STAR Federal Tax Credits for Energy Efficiency — Product eligibility summaries for federal credits.
https://www.energystar.gov/about/federal-tax-credits
License: U.S. EPA/DOE government material; generally reusable with attribution. · Referenced 2026-11-01 - DSIRE – Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency — Directory of state, local, and utility rebates. We link users to DSIRE rather than republishing proprietary compilations.
https://www.dsireusa.org/
License: Content owned by N.C. Clean Energy Technology Center; linking and fair citation. Do not scrape/republish full database without permission. https://www.dsireusa.org/ · Link-out resource - U.S. Census Bureau Metropolitan Statistical Areas — Metro area definitions aligned with OEWS area codes.
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/metro-micro.html
License: Public domain (U.S. Census Bureau). · OEWS May 2025 area definitions
Tip from us: if a bid is far outside the band, ask which line items changed — tonnage, tear-off layers, panel upgrade — before assuming someone “ripped you off” or found a miracle price.